The National for Wednesday August 9, 2017

A "Furious" North Korea Threatens "Simultaneous Strike" On Guam By Mid-August

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THE US ECONOMY IS CRASHING. (Cliff High)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmWg7NRx-Ow
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HOW SERIOUS IS THIS? WIN WIN SITUATION FOR N KOREA.
B1 BOMBERS AT ANDERSEN AFB MAY ABANDON THIS BASE FOR ANOTHER SECURE BASE.PREVENTITIVE WAR AGAINST N KOREA IS NO LONGER A VIABLE OPTION NOW.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSPPRclguX8
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Tyler Durden's picture
by Tyler Durden
Aug 10, 2017 5:37 AM

So much for Rex Tillerson's tepid attempt to de-escalate Trump's "fire and fury" statement.

Moments ago, the state run-KCNA news agency issued a statement in which it cited a commander of the Korean People's Army according to whom President Donald Trump's threat was a "load of nonsense," it failed to grasp the "grave situation," and said that "sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him," referring to Trump’s comments about unleashing "fire and fury."

Reaffirming its intentions to strike Guam, N. Korea said it is "seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the U.S." Noting that it is getting exhausted and angry with Trump's "load of nonsense", the General said that Trump's threats are "extremely getting on the nerves of the infuriated Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA."

"The KPA Strategic Force will finally complete the plan until mid August and report it to the commander-in-chief of the DPRK nuclear force and wait for his order" and N. Korea will closely watch U.S. "speech and behavior."

Turning the tables on Trump's statement that only harsh language can work on Kim Jong Un, N.Korea responded that "sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him."



The North Korean statement also says the military action its army "is about to take" will be effective for restraining America's "frantic moves" in and near the southern part of the Korean Peninsula. Hinting that Pyongyang will continue planning an attack, the General adds that "the military action the KPA is about to take will be an effective remedy for restraining the frantic moves of the U.S. in the southern part of the Korean peninsula and its vicinity. "

It said that North Korea will complete a plan by mid-August for the "historic enveloping fire at Guam," convey it to the commander in chief of its nuclear force and then "wait for his order." North Korea says it will "keep closely watching the speech and behavior of the U.S." The army General explains that "this unprecedented step is to give stronger confidence in certain victory and courage to the Korean people and help them witness the wretched plight of the U.S. imperialists."

And, in a surprising tangent, the statement goes so far as to give details of the flight plan its ICBMs will take, which will be right above Japan, hardly a detail that Tokyo will be excited about:

The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA will cross the sky above Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi Prefectures of Japan. They will fly 3 356.7 km for 1 065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 km away from Guam.
Finally, the KPA Strategic Force said it will finally complete the Guam attack plan by mid-August, so it may be the case that North Korea will launch one if not more Hwasong-12 rockets in the coming weeks.

* * *

The full KCNA statement is below:

Pyongyang, August 10 (KCNA) General Kim Rak Gyom, commander of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army, released the following statement on August 9:

As already clarified, the Strategic Force of the KPA is seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the U.S.

On Tuesday, the KPA Strategic Force through a statement of its spokesman fully warned the U.S. against its all-round sanctions on the DPRK and moves of maximizing military threats to it. But the U.S. president at a gold links again let out a load of nonsense about "fire and fury," failing to grasp the on-going grave situation. This is extremely getting on the nerves of the infuriated Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA.

It seems that he has not yet understood the statement.

Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him. This is the judgment made by the service personnel of the KPA Strategic Force.

The military action the KPA is about to take will be an effective remedy for restraining the frantic moves of the U.S. in the southern part of the Korean peninsula and its vicinity.

The Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA Strategic Force are replete with a strong determination to fully demonstrate once again the invincible might of the force, which has developed into a reliable nuclear force of the Workers' Party of Korea and the world, strongest strike service, through the planned enveloping strike targeting the U.S. imperialist bases of aggression.

The Strategic Force is also considering the plan for opening to public the historic enveloping fire at Guam, a practical action targeting the U.S. bases of aggression.

This unprecedented step is to give stronger confidence in certain victory and courage to the Korean people and help them witness the wretched plight of the U.S. imperialists.

The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA will cross the sky above Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi Prefectures of Japan. They will fly 3356.7 km for 1065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 km away from Guam.

The KPA Strategic Force will finally complete the plan until mid August and report it to the commander-in-chief of the DPRK nuclear force and wait for his order.

We keep closely watching the speech and behavior of the U.S.
The bottom line is that while Trump expects Kim to relent, the North Korean leader clearly has no plans to do that, and demands the same from Trump, which also won't happen. How this crisis is resolved in a peaceful, diplomatic way under these conditions remains unknown, if not impossible.

===============================
North Korea details Guam missile plan as it scoffs at Trump
Christine Kim and Martin Petty
6 MIN READ

SEOUL/GUAM (Reuters) - North Korea dismissed warnings by U.S. President Donald Trump that it would face "fire and fury" if it threatened the United States and outlined detailed plans on Thursday for a missile strike near the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam.

Experts in South Korea said the plans unveiled by the reclusive North ratcheted up risks significantly, since Washington was likely to view any missile aimed at its territory as a provocation, even if launched as a test.

North Korea's apparently rapid progress in developing nuclear weapons and missiles capable of reaching the U.S. mainland has fueled tensions that erupted into a war of words between Washington and Pyongyang this week, unnerving regional powers and global investors.

World stocks fell for a third day, with shares in Seoul slumping to a seven-week low, after North Korea said it was finalizing plans to fire four intermediate-range missiles over Japan to land 30-40 km (18-25 miles) from Guam, adding detail to a plan first announced on Wednesday.

Guam, a tropical island more than 3,000 km (2,000 miles) to the southeast of North Korea, is home to about 163,000 people and a U.S. Navy installation that includes a submarine squadron, a Coast Guard group and an air base.

As announced by North Korea, the planned path of the missiles would cross some of the world's busiest sea and air traffic routes.

The North Korean army would complete its plans in mid-August, ready for leader Kim Jong Un's order, state-run KCNA news agency reported, citing General Kim Rak Gyom, commander of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army.

"The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA (Korean People's Army) will cross the sky above Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi Prefectures of Japan," the report said. "They will fly 3,356.7 km (2,085.8 miles) for 1,065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 km away from Guam."

While North Korea regularly threatens to destroy the United States and its allies, the report was unusual in its detail. It follows two successful tests of an intercontinental missile by the isolated state in July and a series of other missile tests.

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"Even if the North's missiles do not hit the ocean territory of Guam, the U.S. will not tolerate such a provocation simply because it is a severe threat to its national security," said Cha Do-hyeogn, visiting researcher at the Asian Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.

Masao Okonogi, professor emeritus at Japan's Keio University, said before the latest KCNA report that Pyongyang may be issuing a warning or advance notice of changes to its missile testing program rather than threatening an attack.

"I believe this is a message saying they plan to move missile tests from the Sea of Japan to areas around Guam," he told Reuters. "By making this advance notice, they are also sending a tacit message that what they are going to do is not an actual attack."

Major airlines that fly over the region however said they had so far made no plans to change flight paths.

AVOIDING MISCALCULATION

FILE PHOTO: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reacts with scientists and technicians of the DPRK Academy of Defence Science after the test-launch of the intercontinental ballistic missile Hwasong-14 in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang July 5, 2017. KCNA/via REUTERS
"Sound dialogue is not possible with such a guy bereft of reason and only absolute force can work on him," KCNA said of Trump. Trump had said on Tuesday that any threats by North Korea would be "met with fire and fury like the world has never seen."

Visitors and residents on Guam appeared to be taking things in their stride. The main beach front on the island was packed with tourists dozing under trees or on the sun loungers of five-star hotels lined up before a calm sea.

Governor Eddie Calvo said Guam had experienced a Japanese invasion in World War Two and countless earthquakes and super-typhoons, and there was no U.S. community better prepared to meet the North Korean threat.

"We are concerned about these threats but at the same time we also want to make sure people don't panic and go on with their lives. Enjoy the beaches," he said.

Slideshow (26 Images)
Lee Choon-geun, senior research fellow at South Korea’s state-run Science and Technology Policy Institute, said there was a risk that any missile could land much closer to Guam than planned.

"The United States will consider it an apparent attack if it lands within its territorial waters and, given the risks involved, will most likely try to shoot them down before they land anywhere close to Guam and its territorial sea," Lee told Reuters.

"This could elevate the threats to an unprecedented level."

The U.S. Seventh Fleet currently has six Aegis ballistic missile defense ships in the region capable of targeting North Korean missiles, and Japan has a further four. Guam also has a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system, similar to one recently installed in South Korea.

Japan could legally intercept a North Korean missile headed toward Guam, its defense minister said on Thursday, but experts believe Japan does not currently have the capability to do so.

The United States and South Korea remain technically still at war with North Korea after the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended with a truce, not a peace treaty.

Tension in the region has risen since North Korea carried out two nuclear bomb tests last year and the intercontinental missile tests, all in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. Trump has said he will not allow Pyongyang to develop a nuclear weapon capable of hitting the United States.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis issued a stark warning on Wednesday, telling Pyongyang it would lose any arms race or conflict.

"The DPRK should cease any consideration of actions that would lead to the end of its regime and the destruction of its people," Mattis said in a statement, using the initials for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Washington has warned it is ready to use force if needed to stop North Korea's ballistic missile and nuclear programs but that it prefers global diplomatic action. The U.N. Security Council unanimously imposed new sanctions on North Korea on Saturday.

Additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle, Susan Heavey and John Walcott in WASHINGTON, Soyoung Kim in SEOUL, William Mallard, Tim Kelly, Kiyoshi Takenaka and Linda Sieg in TOKYO, and John Ruwitch in SHANGHAI; Writing by Raju Gopalakrishnan; Editing by Nick Macfie

=====================================

Why North Korea Is Planning Long-Range Missile Flight Tests Over Japan and Toward Guam
What an unusual statement out of North Korea tells us about its future missile testing plans.


By Ankit Panda
August 10, 2017



On Thursday morning, hardly 48 hours after U.S. President Donald J. Trump first threatened “fire and fury” for continued threats, North Korea released an unusual statement through its state-run Korean Central News Agency.

The statement built on another first released on Tuesday evening, which hinted at a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile test near Guam.

Thursday’s statement dug in further, noting that the “Strategic Force of the [Korean People’s Army] is seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 [IRBMs].”

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The statement grew stranger toward its conclusion.

North Korea included detail about the prospective trajectory for its launch in detail that I cannot recall seeing in a KCNA statement on a prospective ballistic missile launch to date.

The statement noted that the four Hwasong-12s will “cross the sky above Shimane, Hiroshima, and Koichi Prefectures of Japan.”

It continued, noting that the missiles would fly for 3,356.7 kilometers over 1,065 seconds. The missiles would “hit the waters 30 to 40 kilometers away from Guam.”

The specificity of those numbers suggests that North Korea has already calibrated a trajectory and is waiting to carry out a test.

So, what exactly is going on here?

First, it’s worth emphasizing that this statement is not stating intent to strike Guam itself. North Korea famously despises the U.S. territory, which hosts U.S. Pacific Command’s bomber fleet at Andersen Air Force Base.

In its statement on Monday, North Korea called the Guam-based B1-B Lancers the “air pirates of Guam,” underlining its distaste for the regular Korean peninsula overflights. Even though the U.S. Air Force’s B1-Bs are physically incapable of delivering nuclear payloads today, North Korea continues to see the system as an nuclear delivery platform.

North Korea’s nuclear strategy, which I have discussed at length in a recent article with Vipin Narang, sees Guam as a major first strike target within the Pacific theater. North Korea would endeavor to use its Hwasong-12 IRBM for such an attack, seeking to disarm the United States of its forward-based bombers at Guam early in any crisis. (It’s older IRBM, the Musudan, appears to have been temporarily retired after a troublesome test record in 2016.)

Thursday’s statement, while not suggesting an imminent strike plan, is nonetheless highly disconcerting for other reasons. In 1998, North Korea tested its Taepodong-1 satellite launch vehicle, overflying Japan to much criticism. That test generated immense controversy and precipitated its self-imposed testing moratorium. While the moratorium spectacularly collapsed in 2006, North Korea has never since overflown Japan with any missiles with the exception of its failed 2009 launch of the Taepodong-2 SLV, which landed in the Pacific.

Last year, in August, North Korea tested a Nodong medium-range ballistic missile (MRBMs), which landed in Japan’s 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone. The splashdown of that Nodong was the first such splashdown also since the late-1990s.

Following that Nodong test, multiple North Korean missile tests in the Sea of Japan have splashed down in Japan’s EEZ, including the two most recent Hwasong-14 intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) tests.

I suspect that the August 2016 Nodong test was intended as a litmus test by North Korea to gauge Japan’s reaction to an EEZ splashdown. While Tokyo reacted with elevated rhetoric and temporarily mulled an open-ended intercept order for its PAC-3 missile defense batteries, it did not take any steps to deter future testing.

As a result, North Korea continued testing its missiles further into Japan’s EEZ. The July 28, 2017, Hwasong-14 ICBM even resulted in video footage of the suspected reentry vehicle being captured from Hokkaido.

The EEZ splashdowns, with the exception of a March salvo test of Scud 2 MRBMs, have an important developmental use for North Korea. Given its constraint of generally avoiding overflights of Japan (certainly with ballistic missiles, if not SLVs) and intent to test out longer-range, higher-performance missiles like the Hwasong-12 IRBM and Hwasong-14 ICBM, North Korea has continued to test its missiles at lofted trajectories.

While lofted trajectories can be useful for testing engine performance, airframe robustness, and certain aspects of the reentry vehicle’s structural integrity in descent, there is important developmental value in testing longer-range missiles to full range.

One benefit for North Korea of a full range flight test would be a more realistic terminal stage experience for the reentry vehicle. Lofted trajectories can produce structural stresses in excess of what the reentry vehicle might experience in descent during a minimum energy trajectory flight; similarly, lofted trajectories can also reduce the duration and intensity of temperature-based stresses for a reentry vehicle.

North Korea’s July 28 test, where the reentry vehicle descended from an incredibly high apogee of 3,700 kilometers into the Sea of Japan, likely was primarily intended to demonstrate full-range performance of the engines and operational launch procedures. North Korea notably did not make any claim that the reentry vehicle survived that test as it had done after the July 4 test.

This is where Thursday’s statement comes in. North Korea is likely setting itself up to carry out full-range flight tests of its new IRBM and ICBMs. It will seek to test them at operational useful trajectories for long-range strikes and, in the process, likely seek to prove its reentry vehicles and gather data on the long-range accuracy of these systems.

Strangely enough then, the Thursday KCNA statement, with its granular breakdown of a potential trajectory, serves almost as a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM; credit to Dave Schmerler for that observation). North Korea normally has filed formal NOTAMs before its satellite launches, but never for ballistic missile tests.

While Thursday’s statement was certainly unusual, it isn’t entirely out of the blue for North Korea. Analysts had suspected that Pyongyang might seek to conduct a full-range flight test, but it was always unclear if they would one day overfly Japan out of the blue. Now, it seems that Kim Jong-un has chosen to give the Japanese — and the Americans — sufficient notice of its intent.

Importantly, Thursday’s statement hinted at a launch date later this month, should Kim Jong-un give the order. Incidentally, the United States and South Korea will convene their annual Ulchi-Freedom Guardian military exercise soon, giving North Korea what it sees as sufficient cause to stage a developmental missile test that will also serve as a show of force.

Unsaid so far in this analysis is the matter of strategic escalation. Make no mistake: a salvo launch of four Hwasong-12 IRBMs within tens of kilometers of Guam would be the single most threatening direct action that North Korea would have ever taken against U.S. territory. That has serious implications for U.S. strategic decision-making, allied reassurance toward Tokyo, and even escalation.

First, Washington and Tokyo would have to decide whether or not to attempt an intercept of the IRBMs in flight using their SM-3 interceptors. Normally, the United States and Japan do not intercept missile tests because they are able to collect useful data on the performance of North Korea’s missiles and avoid unnecessary escalation with Pyongyang.

A launch that would overfly Japan and land tens of kilometers off Guam is another matter altogether. The United States’ defense commitments to Japan would make rationalizing an interception a simple matter; indeed, for Washington to maintain credibility in the eyes of its allies, it would be compelled to attempt interception over the Sea of Japan using SM-3s.

IRBM interception, however, is no simple matter and the SM-3 Block IA and Block IB interceptors would not be up to the task. Interception over the Sea of Japan would likely require the more impressive Block IIA, which has seen recent testing failures (albeit, allegedly due to human error).

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries in Guam may be able to take a shot at the incoming IRBMs in their terminal stage depending on a range of factors. THAAD, however, has just entered testing against IRBM-class targets. Finally, even if THAAD succeeds, the missiles would have already overflown Japan by the time they enter engagement range for the Guam-based batteries.

In the end, the prospect of successful interception of one IRBM would come down to a great number of variables going in the favor of the United States and Japan. Even if one missile is successfully intercepted, the odds of going four-for-four with North Korea’s Hwasong-12 salvo over the Sea of Japan using SM-3s are likely to be vanishingly low.

If a single North Korean reentry vehicle successfully splashes down near Guam, the credibility of U.S. missile defense assurances would take a tremendous hit, shaking the faith that Japan and other allies have in Washington’s assurances. Moreover, for the United States, the pressure to respond militarily would be considerably amplified, presenting the risk of an escalation spiral.

Either way, Kim Jong-un has signaled a course of action and, whether or not he chooses to act, the outcomes appear to be in his favor.

If he orders a salvo test and no interception attempts occur, he acquires valuable data, potentially proves North Korea’s reentry vehicles, and then proceeds to declare the Hwasong-12 operational.

If he orders a salvo test and the U.S. and Japan attempt interception but fail to make contact with all four missiles, U.S. defense assurances and credibility take a hit. In any scenario where a ballistic missile is allowed to overfly Japan into the Pacific, this remains true.

Finally, even if Kim Jong-un is to take no action after this KCNA release, the prospect of overflying Japan is now on the table. It is possible too that the statement is an attempt at bargaining, but this appears unlikely given the tone and explicit statement that “sound dialogue is not possible with [Trump].”

2017 began with assurances out of North Korea that it would test an ICBM when ready. Kim Jong-un has already done so twice and tensions between Washington and Pyongyang remain exceptionally high.

Actions like those outlined in Thursday’s KCNA statement would seriously increase the possibility of armed conflict between North Korea and the United States, which would draw in South Korea and Japan. Moreover, any such conflict is unlikely to remain below the nuclear threshold given what we know about North Korea’s self-professed nuclear strategy and nuclear use pressures.

It may not be up to the Trump administration at this point whether or not North Korea chooses to carry out what would be an immensely provocative salvo test. What will be up to the Trump administration will be the response thereafter and continued coordination with allies in the meantime.

Those decisions will determine whether escalation with North Korea will be inevitable or whether the existing uneasy peace can persist beyond 2017.

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TopicsFlashpoints
TagsGuamHwasong-12Hwasong-14ICBMInterceptionIRBMMissile DefenseNorth KoreaNorth Korea ballistic missile testingNorth Korean reentry vehiclesPacific OceanReentry vehiclesSea of JapanSM-3SM-3 IIA
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Stop The Bluster - North Korea Is A Nuclear Weapon State

The Washington Post headlined today: Trump threatens ‘fire and fury’ in response to North Korean threats

Just another Trump bluster, I thought. Such are mo longer a reason to read a story. But what are those "North Korean threats" he "responded" to? I had not seen any of those. Diving into the story I found :

President Trump used his harshest language yet to warn North Korea on Tuesday that it will be “met with fire and fury and frankly power, the likes of which this world has never seen before,” if it does not stop threatening the United States.
...
It was not immediately clear what Trump was responding to.
The Washington Post needs to fire its headline writer. Why assert that Trump responded to "threats" when there were none? Why assert a reason when you have no fucking clue why he did what he did?

A different shabby site claims that the base for Trump's played-up nonsense was a WaPo piece published the day before:

The president was responding to a report in the Washington Post that, according to a confidential U.S. intelligence assessment presented late last month, the North Korean regime has “successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles.”
That report was again just bluster. The DPRK (North Korea) had announced a miniaturized nuclear device in March 2016. It even published pictures of it.

On July 4th the DPRK launched its first Intercontinental Ballistic Missile. A second test was successfully launched on July 29 under realistic operational conditions. The DPRK successfully tested nuclear devices at least five times - including a hydrogen device with potentially megatons of explosive power. It has enough nuclear material for some 40-60 weapons. All DPRK claims about progress in its missile and nuke programs have, sooner or later, been proven as truthful. There was and is no reason to doubt its March 2016 assertion.

North Korea is for all practical purposes a nuclear weapon state with the ability to deliver nukes onto the continental United States.

This is not news. Talk about "fire and fury" or an ultimatum to North Korea or of preemptive strikes is all nonsense. Nothing the U.S. can do to North Korea can prevent a response that would nuke and destroy Washington DC or some other U.S. city.

North Korea has good reasons to want nukes and the U.S. missed all chances to remove those reasons. It is way too late to lament about that.