Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Harvard President Tests Positive For ...US reports more than 10k new cases in largest daily jump yet.

Harvard President Tests Positive For COVID-19: Live Updates

Summary:

US reports more than 10k new cases in largest daily jump yet
Number of new coronavirus cases confirmed over last 2 days largest yet
NY Gov Cuomo says cases in his state doubling every 3 days
Pentagon says 174 servicemembers have coronavirus
Harvard president tests positive
Alaska orders visitors to quarantine
UK reports another jump in cases
US records more than 100 deaths in a day
India PM Modi announces 21-day nationwide lockdown that will be largest world has ever seen
Pelosi says 'real optimism' Congress could reach stimulus bill deal in the next few hours
Global case total nears 400k
PM Abe, IOC agree to delay Tokyo Games 1 year, Paralympics still set to take place this summer
India expands lockdown
Italian designers making coronavirus face masks
Pakistan deploys army
Italy shuts down gas stations
Albania imposes 16-hour daily lockdown
Washington DC orders 'non-essential' businesses to close
Russia, Poland close more businesses, tighten restrictions
Myanmar, Laos confirm first cases
Dr. Birx says NY efforts will take 1-2 weeks to show progress
India bans export of ventilators
Trump to invoke DPA to produce 60k masks
G7 promises 'whatever is necessary' to save global economy
Thailand to declare state of emergency
Macau, Hong Kong tighten restrictions
Beijing lifts lockdowns on Hubei, Wuhan
Nearly half of UK watched Johnson's Monday night address
Belgium reports 500+ new cases
European PMI offer first indicator of economic damage
German finance minister says more stimulus to come
Hawaii reports first death

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Update (1340ET): Harvard President Lawrence S. Bacow said he and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus.

"We started experiencing symptoms on Sunday—first coughs then fevers, chills, and muscle aches and contacted our doctors on Monday. We were tested yesterday and just received the results a few minutes ago," he said in a statement.

Bacow said he's not sure how he and his wife contracted the virus, but said "far fewer people crossed our paths recently than is usually the case" since they started to work from home back on March 14.

"We will be taking the time we need to rest and recuperate during a two-week isolation at home," he added. "I am blessed with a great team, and many of my colleagues will be taking on more responsibility over the next few weeks as Adele and I focus on just getting healthy."

Harvard was one of the first big US colleges to move all or most classes online.

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Update (1324ET): President Trump on Tuesday once again tried to deny that his administration dropped the ball on the coronavirus response, while saying he would like to see the country re-open by Easter.

Of course, the CDC's botched handling of the tests has been well-documented, and the fact that nobody in the administration acting to overule the CDC and start stockpiling tests from elsewhere might be remembered as one of the administration's biggest screwups in handling the crisis.

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Update (1305ET): As Pelosi and Schumer continue to battle Mnuchin over the oversight provisions of a sweeping $2.5 trillion emergency coronavirus stimulus package, the CDC and Italy's Civil Protection Agency have released new officials.

According to the CDC, there are now 544 confirmed deaths in the US, up from 400. As far as total cases go, there were 44,232 in the US, compared with 33,455 the day before.

In Italy, the death toll jumped 743, according to the Civil Protection Agency, following earlier reports that cited a jump in Lombardia. That brought the Italian case total to 6,820, the second deadliest day on record.

Italy's case total, meanwhile jumped to 69,176, compared with 63,924 yesterday.

Italian markets rallied sharply on Tuesday amid the 'good news' that the lockdown might be working. Unfortunately, that good news is already starting to fade.

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Update (1259ET): Russia, which has recorded 495 cases of the coronavirus, has just ordered all cinemas, nightclubs and children's play areas in the country to close, after barring foreigners and closing borders.

Poland has also ratcheted up its restrictions on movement and gatherings in an effort to slow the accelerating spread of coronavirus. The new measures, which will apply from today until April 11, would restrict people to only being allowed to leave their homes for essential work, visits to the doctor or pharmacy, to buy food, or to walk the dog.

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Update (1225ET): To recap, here's a selection of comments made by negotiators this morning.

We're not entirely sure where 'the red zone' is, exactly. Is that a "Twin Peaks" reference?

At any rate, the latest batch of headlines suggests the vote will be pushed to tomorrow, while Pelosi plans to hold "talks" with her caucus in an hour, though Schumer is also hinting that they might be resolved.

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Update (1200ET): Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday as he continues to lead the country from home while taking care of his two kids (their mother is in isolation after testing positive for COVID-19) that he might impose some border restrictions as the number of confirmed cases in the US climbs.

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Update (1150ET): Chuck Schumer just said we're 'on the 2 yard line' - watch the rest of his address, and the ensuing debate on the Senate floor, live:

He said his meeting with Mnuchin - which just finished - left them optimistic that the bill would be brought to the floor "in a few hours".

The title of the Democratic plan, Schumer said, is "workers first."

Then again, if he really wanted to put workers first, he should vote 'yes' on the bill that will start cutting them checks.

The Senate bill will pay the full salary of 'idled' workers for up to four months. Which will allow employees to "reassemble quickly" in those small restaurants and warehouses. He described it as "unemployment insurance on steroids." He added that there are no dealbreakers on either side that will stop them from implementing the legislation in the next few hours. He added that in the last few days, "we've made huge progress in achieving these goals."

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Update (1130ET): Washington DC Mayor Muriel Bowser has just ordered all "non-essential" businesses to close as the capital city gears up for a lockdown.

We can't help but wonder - does that include Capitol Hill?

After Cuomo finished slamming FEMA and the federal government for doing nothing to help New York accumulate more ventilators, he said that hospitals are experimenting with alterations that could allow for two patients to be hooked up to a single ventilator.

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Update (1110ET): NY Governor Cuomo said COVID-19 infections are doubling every three days in his state, and that the apex of new cases could arrive within the next 2-3 weeks, and could be "higher and sooner" than we thought.

Watch his daily press conference, which he is holding from the Javits Center, which is being converted into an overflow hospital:

Cuomo warned that US 'can't sacrifice public health for the economy', rebutting President Trump and - more recently - Larry Kudlow's insistence that people will need to return to work in a few weeks. New York "won't sacrifice 1-2% of the population" to save the economy Cuomo said (remember, he earlier said that more than 80% of New Yorkers could eventually contract the virus).

"The increase in the number of cases continues, unabated. The rate of increase has gone up," Cuomo said. "We're not slowing it and it is accelerating on its own."

The state confirmed another 5k cases overnight, he said, bringing the total north of 25k. While New York State has roughly 100k hospitals, Cuomo said he might need as many as 140k. During the press conference, he launched into a rant about FEMA bragging about sending 400 ventilators to NY when the state needs more than 30k.

The exact number of new cases: 4,790 new cases in New York State, bringing its total to 25,665. That includes 2,599 new cases in NYC (to a total of 14,904). The number of fatalities in NYC climbed to 131, and

"What are you doing sending 400 when I need 30,000 ventilators," Cuomo said. "You're missing the magnitude of the problem."

Cuomo added that his state needs the ventilators now, and added that he would personally transport them "myself" to another state once NY gets past the apex of its problem.

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Update (1050ET): In what appears to be the largest lockdown in world history, Indian PM Narendra Modi has ordered all 1.3 billion Indians to stay home for 21 days, a lockdown order that will nearly double the number of people who are facing - or did face - a lockdown (some 3 billion people, now).

Modi warned that India, which has confirmed fewer than 500 cases, though the outbreak is suspected of being much, much larger, will be set back for decades if it doesn't act, according to Reuters.

The lockdown announcement follows a ban on domestic travel.

The lockdowns increase the likelihood that the US could become the global epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, as the WHO suggested earlier, as President Trump openly suggests that the decision to put the economy into a deep freeze might have been a mistake, despite warnings that millions could die otherwise.

As far as why India is taking such drastic measures, the country's densely populated slums and many vulnerabilities have made it a veritable tinderbox for an massive outbreak. As JPM shows, India is merely trying to stop a massive acceleration.

India's national lockdown is now the largest such lockdown in world history, eclipsing the 760 million Chinese who faced some form of movement restrictions during the peak of that country's outbreak. India's lockdown will affect all 1.3 billion people, compared with 158 million in the US, according to the NYT.

"This is the biggest lockdown in world history," said Raghu Raman, a former soldier with the Indian Army and founder of the National Intelligence Grid, an umbrella database aimed at countering terrorism.

"This strategic pause gives decision-makers more time to arrest the exponential spread of the virus and evaluate tradeoffs."

Just last week, the NYT published a report marveling at India's success in combating the crisis despite taking only a few steps to prevent infections. As the paper noted at the time, the country's efforts had been so successful it was almost...unbelievable. PM Modi just won reelection, and it's unclear what motive he would have to underreport the number of cases. But one thing is for sure: If the virus makes it to some of India's most densely populated areas, massive outbreaks could ensue.

The lockdown begins at midnight local time - which is just four hours away.

In reaction NDFs for the Indian rupee weakened, as investors braced for the coming economic hit.

Modi said that if the country can't do a lockdown for 21 days, it could suffer for 21 years.

If India can't tolerate the 21-day lockdown, then "many families will be destroyed," Modi said. "Stay home for at least three weeks; even one step could end in disaster. The initiatives of the government need to be taken seriously. We need to break the cycle of the infection. After 2 months of extensive research, experts say that this outbreak can only be stopped by social distancing," Modi said.

He also shared a banner with what appeared to be a new slogan: "Nobody steps out", written in Devanagari script.

* * *

Update (1020ET): Over the weekend, FEMA Administrator Peter Gaynor rebutted Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi's calls for Trump to use the Defense Production Act - a Korean War-era law allowing the president to seize control of the country's manufacturing capacity and direct it toward a war effort - by claiming that American corporations were taking these steps voluntarily.

Now, Gaynor just revealed during an interview with CNN that Trump intends to use the law for the first time since issuing an executive order invoking its authority last week.

Per WSJ:

Gaynor told CNN on Tuesday that the administration had decided to use the Defense Production Act because "there are some test kits we need to get our hands on.” He said the federal government was also inserting “DPA language” into its mass contract for 500 million masks.

"We’re going to use it, we’re going to use it when we need it, and we’re going to use it today," Mr. Gaynor said in his remarks on CNN.

In other news, India this morning banned all exports of ventilators and other critical medical equipment, cutting off one more potential source for governors and the federal government.

The UK government meanwhile is going all in on its order for Britons to stay home, with PM Johnson tweeting again to remind citizens they might face repercussions for violating the order.

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Update (0937ET): The G7 has published another communique following a phone call on Monday where the group of developed nations promised to do "whatever is necessary" to stop a global recession.

Nancy Pelosi spoke via phone with Jim Carmer and said there's "real optimism that we could get something done" as she explained that she and Mnuchin had agreed to include the House language adding oversight to $500 billion in aide to corporations to ensure that the money won't be spent on stock buybacks and executive comp.

"We're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel," Pelosi told Jim Cramer during a phone interview. "We think the bill has moved decidedly toward the side of workers."

This comes shortly after the Washington Post reported that Mnuchin had agreed to the oversight measures. Pelosi also said she had been willing to compromise by granting immunity to companies making masks and other equipment.

In the US, Dr. Deborah Birx, a key member of the White House task force, told NBC News that the measures put in place in New York by the mayor and governor will take another "7 to 14 days" for the effects to be seen.

“What we’re seeing in the hospitals now are people who most likely got exposed and sick more than 2 weeks ago,” Birx said.

It has been a busy morning for Mnuchin.